Raila Odinga: Why he's No Longer Relevant

Now, I have to be quick, I know before his foot soldiers, or do I say fanatics are up in arms against me. There's no doubt that Raila Amollo Odinga alias Agwambo is one of, if not Kenya's most revered politicians the country has had so far. His ability to mobilize both political kingpins and nonentities in "agitation" for whatever he wants is second to none. He possesses a unique and unrivalled political tactical capability and charisma that even when he's not doing anything, his political foes are constantly kept at tiptoe stance knowing not what to expect next from the political monster that is Raila Odinga.


However, in my honest view, the man, with all his abilities and capabilities, charisma and mammoth popularity amongst his supporters, has outlived his relevance in Kenyan politics. Raila is a natural political agitator. He is an opportunist who sees wrongs (whether real or imagined) and makes absolute use of them. He knows that creating a victim mentality in the minds of the populace is the best way to make people rebel against the government. Usually, democratically elected governments do not have bad intentions; what they do is create a bad policy. The intention is always a good one. But when Raila sees a bad policy, instead of criticizing the policy and probably suggesting either a better alternative or an alteration to the bad one to make it better, he almost always tries to make it look like the government actually intended to hurt the citizenry. Not a bad strategy, really, but not in the year 2015.


His politics has mainly revolved around agitating against bad policies and in most cases, he has preferred direct action in the form of protests led by himself most of which have turned violent. In the nineties, Raila Odinga did this kind of politics so well that he, in the end, forced former president Moi to try and absorb, him into KANU in a desperate attempt to neutralize his political venom. Little did he know that the enigma of Kenyan politics had other plans in case things did not go his way. Well, in the end they didn't, and Raila executed his plans to perfection leaving KANU, a shadow of its old self. He managed to convince even the staunchest of Moi's allies to leave KANU aided by the fact that Uhuru Kenyatta, the president's preferred choice at the time was relatively new in politics and the veterans, who included the late Professor George Saitoti, weren't ready to have a political amateur overtake them. Moi had been forced into mistakes uncharacteristic of the self declared professor of politics.


Raila is said to have mobilized people to protest against single party system, oppressive constitutional regime, abuse of human rights, bad governance, et al, in the large parts of final two decades of last century. Credit to him and his comrades in the struggle. Thanks to their escapades, losses of lives aside, we're here.


Now, Raila seems to live in the nineties up until now. After the 2013 elections which many had touted as his last shot at presidency, he embarked on mission to rekindle his quickly dimming political star. He chose to hit the newly elected government left, right and centre. It was corruption on one day and devolution on the other. Barely months into Uhuru Kenyatta's regime he started a campaign calling for national dialogue while setting impossible conditions in his demands. Uhuru chose to ignore him. He then soon after started another campaign called OKOA KENYA. All these actions meant to have him remain politically relevant. Everything culminated in last year's SABASABA rally at Uhuru park which in all fairness did actually make hairs stand on our skin.


These kinds of tactics are what I think is a mistake. In as late as 2014, political protests and possible rioting are completely unacceptable to most Kenyans. Kenya has made great economic strides since the defeat of Kanu by NARC in 2002. Kenya has become a middle income country, and whatever you make of that, the fact is we're not where we were fifteen years ago. An expanding middle class citizenry means that more people are getting busier trying to generate the extra dime for their new lifestyles. This group of people are the majority loanees of banks and other financial institutions. They must pay there loans else.... Stability is very important to them as much as security. They detest protests and riots. They were the most terrified lot in July last year. On the 7th of July, they hid their cars at home, closed their businesses, and held their chests in both wish and prayer, that nothing happened. They sat in front of their Television sets to watch the events. Media houses were even more terrified, the refused to air the events live. They were afraid too. In the end we were all relieved that nothing ugly happened.


At the mention of the name Raila Odinga, a good number of hearts grow cold. The name is almost synonymous to instability hence unacceptable to the middle class. Raila must dissociate himself from violence and instability.


Raila must also wake up to the reality of his opponents. He's facing two of Moi's brightest students. They understand him in and out. He faces a unique combination of political grit and finesse. A graduate of political science, and an approachability of its kind, Uhuru Kenyatta has won the hearts of many who did not support him. Add to that, the versatility of another political Hardman that William Samoei Ruto is, you've got in your hands the best combination there can be.


Raila may have to reconsider his believe in his chances. You cant employ analogue tactics if you want to win a digital battle. Him and his handlers, need to wake up to the realities of our time. Otherwise, he continues remaining irrelevant.