Why Matiang’i and the United Opposition Are Not Ready for Ruto

By Fred Allan Nyankuru

Kenyans are emotional people, and rightly so. Politics here is not just about policies; it is about survival, bread, rent, school fees, and dignity. So every election cycle, when the economy bites and pressure rises, we naturally start looking for an alternative. We ask ourselves: Who can do it better? Who can remove the sitting president?

That question is now being asked about Fred Matiang’i and the so-called United Opposition. But if we are honest with ourselves —brutally honest, the kind of honesty you only hear late at night when politics is put aside, we must admit something uncomfortable:

At the moment, they don’t have what it takes to unseat William Ruto. Not because Ruto is perfect. Not because Kenyans are not hurting. But because Ruto is a political titan, and titans are not removed by noise, anger, or nostalgia. You don’t rock a ship by blowing wind into the sea using your mouth.

Ruto understands power deeply. He is not learning on the job. He is not guessing. He is not improvising. This is a man who has lived inside power for decades —KANU, ODM, URP, Jubilee, UDA. He has seen governments rise and fall from the inside. He knows where loyalty is built, where it breaks, and where it must be bought with policy rather than promises.

You may disagree with his style. You may dislike his politics. But you cannot deny this truth: Ruto understands how Kenya works —politically, economically, and psychologically. And that matters. Many opposition figures talk at Kenyans. Ruto talks to Kenyans, especially those at the bottom.

Yes, the economy is tight. Yes, taxes have gone up. Yes, Kenyans are feeling squeezed. But politics is not judged only by pain; it is judged by direction. And this is where the opposition is struggling.

Ruto has anchored his presidency on tangible, visible projects —things people can see, touch, and argue about: Affordable housing projects across counties, Digital jobs and overseas labour programs, Hustler Fund and SME financing, Infrastructure continuity, Agricultural input reforms.

You may argue about effectiveness. You may question sustainability. But you cannot say nothing is happening. In Kenyan politics, visibility beats theory every time. A house half-built speaks louder than ten press conferences.

Fred Matiang’i is competent. No serious Kenyan disputes that. He is disciplined. He is firm. He delivers. But Kenyan politics is not a performance appraisal. Competence alone does not win elections. You must connect emotionally. You must build a coalition patiently. You must survive insults, betrayal, tribal arithmetic, church politics, youth anger, and elite suspicion, all at once. Ruto has done this for years.

Matiang’i, so far, appears like a man being introduced to politics, not one who has lived in its trenches. And Kenyans, especially voters, can sense that.

Let’s be frank. What exactly unites this opposition? Is it ideology? Not clear. Is it economic philosophy? Not articulated. Is it leadership structure? Confused. Is it a single message? Fragmented. Right now, it feels more like shared frustration than shared vision. Kenyans have seen this movie before.

A coalition built mainly on removing someone rarely survives the election —let alone wins it. Ruto’s camp, on the other hand, knows exactly what story it is telling: Hustler vs dynasty, Bottom-up economics, Inclusion through enterprise. Whether you agree or not, the story is clear. The opposition is still arguing about the title of the book.

Ruto is not just President, he is politically grounded. One thing many analysts underestimate is this: Ruto is comfortable among ordinary people. Markets. Churches. Fundraisers. Youth forums. He thrives there. He speaks their language —not perfect English, not academic jargon, but the language of struggle, effort, and faith. In Kenya, that matters more than polished policy papers. You cannot defeat such a politician by appearing distant, technocratic, or elite —even if you are competent.

Noise Is Not Momentum. Social media outrage is loud. Press conferences are dramatic. Political rallies are exciting. But, elections are won by ground networks, trusted messengers, consistent presence, and clear alternatives. Right now, the opposition is making noise, not momentum. And Ruto, quietly and steadily, is building momentum —not noise.

This is the thing; Titans all, but not easily. History teaches us that no leader is unbeatable forever. But titans fall only when the alternative is clear, the vision is believable, the leadership feels ready, and the people feel understood.

At the moment, Fred Matiang’i and the United Opposition are not there yet. They may get there. They may grow. They may organize better. But today as things stand, William Ruto’s ship is not sinking. And you don’t rock such a ship by shouting into the wind and hoping the sea will listen.

Kenya respects strength. Kenya respects resilience. Kenya respects preparation. And, until the opposition matches that —not with anger, but with strategy, Ruto remains not just president, but the dominant political force of his time.

And that is the hard Kenyan truth.