Why Matiang’i and the United Opposition Are Not Ready for Ruto

By Fred Allan Nyankuru

Kenyans are emotional people, and rightly so. Politics here is not just about policies; it is about survival, bread, rent, school fees, and dignity. So every election cycle, when the economy bites and pressure rises, we naturally start looking for an alternative. We ask ourselves: Who can do it better? Who can remove the sitting president?

That question is now being asked about Fred Matiang’i and the so-called United Opposition. But if we are honest with ourselves —brutally honest, the kind of honesty you only hear late at night when politics is put aside, we must admit something uncomfortable:

At the moment, they don’t have what it takes to unseat William Ruto. Not because Ruto is perfect. Not because Kenyans are not hurting. But because Ruto is a political titan, and titans are not removed by noise, anger, or nostalgia. You don’t rock a ship by blowing wind into the sea using your mouth.

Ruto understands power deeply. He is not learning on the job. He is not guessing. He is not improvising. This is a man who has lived inside power for decades —KANU, ODM, URP, Jubilee, UDA. He has seen governments rise and fall from the inside. He knows where loyalty is built, where it breaks, and where it must be bought with policy rather than promises.

You may disagree with his style. You may dislike his politics. But you cannot deny this truth: Ruto understands how Kenya works —politically, economically, and psychologically. And that matters. Many opposition figures talk at Kenyans. Ruto talks to Kenyans, especially those at the bottom.

Yes, the economy is tight. Yes, taxes have gone up. Yes, Kenyans are feeling squeezed. But politics is not judged only by pain; it is judged by direction. And this is where the opposition is struggling.

Ruto has anchored his presidency on tangible, visible projects —things people can see, touch, and argue about: Affordable housing projects across counties, Digital jobs and overseas labour programs, Hustler Fund and SME financing, Infrastructure continuity, Agricultural input reforms.

You may argue about effectiveness. You may question sustainability. But you cannot say nothing is happening. In Kenyan politics, visibility beats theory every time. A house half-built speaks louder than ten press conferences.

Fred Matiang’i is competent. No serious Kenyan disputes that. He is disciplined. He is firm. He delivers. But Kenyan politics is not a performance appraisal. Competence alone does not win elections. You must connect emotionally. You must build a coalition patiently. You must survive insults, betrayal, tribal arithmetic, church politics, youth anger, and elite suspicion, all at once. Ruto has done this for years.

Matiang’i, so far, appears like a man being introduced to politics, not one who has lived in its trenches. And Kenyans, especially voters, can sense that.

Let’s be frank. What exactly unites this opposition? Is it ideology? Not clear. Is it economic philosophy? Not articulated. Is it leadership structure? Confused. Is it a single message? Fragmented. Right now, it feels more like shared frustration than shared vision. Kenyans have seen this movie before.

A coalition built mainly on removing someone rarely survives the election —let alone wins it. Ruto’s camp, on the other hand, knows exactly what story it is telling: Hustler vs dynasty, Bottom-up economics, Inclusion through enterprise. Whether you agree or not, the story is clear. The opposition is still arguing about the title of the book.

Ruto is not just President, he is politically grounded. One thing many analysts underestimate is this: Ruto is comfortable among ordinary people. Markets. Churches. Fundraisers. Youth forums. He thrives there. He speaks their language —not perfect English, not academic jargon, but the language of struggle, effort, and faith. In Kenya, that matters more than polished policy papers. You cannot defeat such a politician by appearing distant, technocratic, or elite —even if you are competent.

Noise Is Not Momentum. Social media outrage is loud. Press conferences are dramatic. Political rallies are exciting. But, elections are won by ground networks, trusted messengers, consistent presence, and clear alternatives. Right now, the opposition is making noise, not momentum. And Ruto, quietly and steadily, is building momentum —not noise.

This is the thing; Titans all, but not easily. History teaches us that no leader is unbeatable forever. But titans fall only when the alternative is clear, the vision is believable, the leadership feels ready, and the people feel understood.

At the moment, Fred Matiang’i and the United Opposition are not there yet. They may get there. They may grow. They may organize better. But today as things stand, William Ruto’s ship is not sinking. And you don’t rock such a ship by shouting into the wind and hoping the sea will listen.

Kenya respects strength. Kenya respects resilience. Kenya respects preparation. And, until the opposition matches that —not with anger, but with strategy, Ruto remains not just president, but the dominant political force of his time.

And that is the hard Kenyan truth.

IF RAILA THE ENIGMA WAS THE PHOENIX, RUTO THE FOX IS THE NINE-LIVED CAT:— Two Parallels, Two Journeys, One Nation’s Story

By Fred Allan Nyankuru

Kenya has always explained its politics through metaphor. It is how we make sense of the extraordinary figures who walk our national stage. Now, as the country reflects on the life and legacy of the late Raila Amolo Odinga, the imagery becomes even more poignant. If Raila, the enigma, was the phoenix who rose again and again from political trials, then William Ruto, the fox, is the nine-lived cat who has survived and adapted through every storm.

These metaphors do not diminish either man. They highlight two powerful and distinct strengths that Kenya has produced. Raila and Ruto represent parallel narratives that, together, reveal the depth of Kenya’s political character: a blend of idealism and pragmatism, conviction and adaptability, sacrifice and survival.

The Phoenix Remembered: Raila Odinga and the Enduring Spirit of Reform

Raila’s passing has left the nation in a reflective mood, contemplating a life that shaped Kenya’s democratic identity. Born into privilege but choosing the difficult path of opposition, he became a symbol of resilience and courage. He endured detention, political exclusion, and repeated electoral heartbreak yet he never abandoned the cause of a more just nation.

It is no accident that Raila was often compared to a phoenix. Even in defeat, he returned with renewed energy and purpose. His voice was never merely personal; it echoed the frustrations, hopes, and dreams of millions. Through Raila’s persistence, Kenya won multiparty democracy, constitutional reform, and a political culture more willing to question power.

Now that he is gone, Kenyans see more clearly what he represented; moral compass; reminder that nations rise when citizens refuse to surrender their ideals; a belief that justice is not a luxury but a duty. Raila embodied the Kenya that dreams the Kenya that believes in finishing the work of freedom.

The Nine-Lived Cat: William Ruto and the Relentless Instinct for Survival

While Raila’s path was marked by public sacrifice, William Ruto’s journey reflects another powerful Kenyan reality: the fierce battle for opportunity in a world that rarely hands it out. Ruto was not born into power. His rise is a story familiar to millions a journey from scarcity to influence, from the margins to the centre. His climb through the ranks of KANU politics, his resilience in the face of crises, and his uncanny ability to survive political challenges have earned him the reputation of a leader with many lives.

Where Raila is remembered for moral conviction, Ruto is known for strategic brilliance. His instincts are sharp, his adaptability remarkable. He understands the machinery of power and knows how to navigate its contradictions.

The “nine-lived cat” metaphor is not a slight; it is recognition of his unique political intelligence. Ruto represents the Kenya that hustles, that observes carefully, that manoeuvres wisely, that refuses to remain where it began. He embodies the Kenya that survives— and wins in spite of the odds.

Two Parallels, One National Identity

Though their lives followed different paths, Raila and Ruto are not contradictions. They are complements— two different expressions of Kenya’s potential. Raila called the nation toward its ideals; Ruto calls the nation toward its possibilities.

The phoenix and the nine-lived cat represent the two forces that have always shaped Kenya: principle and pragmatism, vision and strategy, reform and resilience. No nation thrives on ideals alone. No nation survives on strategy alone. Kenya needed and still needs both.

Why Their Dual Legacy Strengthens Kenya

Together, Raila and Ruto reveal Kenya’s complexity and power. Raila’s legacy teaches courage: the willingness to rise for justice regardless of the cost. Ruto’s journey teaches determination: the ability to turn humble beginnings into national leadership. They show that Kenya is capable of producing: dreamers and tacticians, reformers and survivors, visionaries and doers.

A healthy democracy requires each of these qualities. Raila broadened the nation’s imagination; Ruto proved that the nation’s possibilities are not reserved for the privileged. Their coexistence in life and legacy reminds Kenya that progress is not linear. It is a dialogue between conviction and adaptability.

With Raila’s passing, Kenya mourns not only a leader but a symbol— a phoenix whose flame illuminated the path of reform. However, the nation continues to move forward with leaders like Ruto, whose resilience demonstrates that the impossible can be achieved through grit and determination.

The truth is simple: Kenya is richer because it has produced both types of leaders. Raila gave the nation courage to rise. Ruto gives the nation the resilience to survive. Together, they form a narrative larger than politics; a story of a country defined by endurance, ambition, hope, innovation, sacrifice, and survival.

If Raila the enigma was the phoenix, and Ruto the fox is the nine-lived cat, then Kenya is the remarkable land that nurtured both. And that is perhaps the greatest testament to the nation’s strength.