The Rise of Rigathi: A Calculated Move or a Dangerous Detour for Kenya?

By Fred Nyankuru

In the ever-evolving chessboard of Kenyan politics, the emergence of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua as a self-styled opposition leader is no mere coincidence —it is a meticulously crafted political stratagem, fuelled by tribal oligarchy, economic muscle, and the manipulation of public discontent. As the nation simmers with frustration at President William Ruto’s administration, a new threat quietly emerges —not from a reformist front, but from within the same establishment it seeks to replace.

Gachagua’s recent manoeuvres are revealing. From fiery speeches veiled as “truth-telling” to his well-calculated American tour, the Mathira politician is not just seeking to be heard; he is strategically positioning himself as the only alternative. But this is not the emergence of a visionary; it is the rise of a tribal strongman, repackaged as a people’s champion.

Rigathi’s Strategy is Power Through Intimidation and Patronage. Gachagua is no fool. He understands Kenya’s political fault lines better than most, and he is keenly aware that populism, tribal identity, and financial influence are the three pillars upon which many have climbed to the top. But unlike past leaders who attempted to mask their ethnic foundations in national rhetoric, Rigathi has chosen to flaunt his tribal identity as a badge of pride and legitimacy.

His tour to the United States, billed as a diaspora engagement mission, is in fact a dual-purpose expedition: to secure financial backing from sympathetic business elites abroad—many of whom belong to his ethnic base, and to send a message to the local opposition: “You will need me.”

It is not far-fetched to argue that this entire rise is being facilitated by tribal oligarchs from Central Kenya who are deeply uncomfortable with the idea of a cross-ethnic, reformist candidate like Fred Matiang’i (his many sins aside) or Kalonzo Musyoka or even David Kenani Maraga gaining traction. The fear? That such leaders, grounded in institutional integrity and untainted by tribal entitlement, might finally break the stranglehold that certain regions have enjoyed over state power and resources.

With the financial machinery that Gachagua is assembling and the ethno-political support already being galvanised, the next step is clear: to blackmail the opposition into submission. Gachagua doesn’t need to win hearts —he needs to make himself too costly to oppose.

By 2026, we will likely witness intense behind-the-scenes pressure on opposition leaders to fall in line. Those who resist may find themselves politically isolated or financially starved. He, with the help of the oligarchy, is creating a dependency structure where political survival hinges on allegiance to his cause; a cause that has nothing to do with national unity or democratic progress. This is not leadership. This is transactional politics draped in the language of ethnic pride and victimhood. It is the worst form of political opportunism.

Kenya must tread carefully. In our understandable frustration with President William Ruto’s administration —whether it be over the economic crisis, the high cost of living, or broken campaign promises —we risk running into the arms of another disaster. Rigathi Gachagua represents a colossal loss of direction for a country that should be moving towards inclusivity, institutional integrity, and issue-based politics. He is not the future. He is the past, weaponised with modern tools.

Kenya’s political evolution cannot continue to orbit around tribal chieftains. We cannot keep replacing one ethnic boss with another under the illusion of change. The country needs a leader who can transcend tribe, unify the regions, and focus on meritocracy, law and order, and economic equity. It is only through such leadership that we can fix the structural problems that have plagued us since independence.

Kenya; let us not make the mistake of imagining that anyone who opposes Ruto is automatically a hero. The enemy of your enemy is not always your friend. A tribal bigot armed with diaspora dollars and local oligarchs’ backing is not a saviour; he is a shadow of a deeper rot.

This is the time for Kenyans to elevate their standards. Opposition unity should not be bought. It should be built. David Maraga, Kalonzo Musyoka, Fred Matiang’i and other opposition leaders must refuse to play second fiddle to power barons who offer nothing but ethnicity and noise. Instead, they must offer vision, discipline, and a national narrative that brings hope to all, not just one tribe.

The public, too, must awaken. Let us demand from our leaders more than slogans, more than “mtu wetu” and more than empty shows of defiance. Let us insist on character, on sacrifice, on policy, and on patriotism.

Rigathi may rise—but let him rise only as a cautionary tale of what happens when a nation loses focus in a moment of pain. The real task ahead is not just to replace Ruto. It is to replace the entire mindset that birthed both him and Rigathi.

That is the revolution Kenya needs. Not another tribal emperor.