The past week has seen increased pollical activity as expected in the country and a renewed energy and campaign ado. Rightly so, these activities have been prompted by the fact that we now have complete and well defined presidential tickets for the main political groupings Kenya Kwanza and Azimio. Both tickets are dynamic in their own right. The dye is cast, the battle lines drawn, and the race in chief underway.
First off, Dr William Ruto picked the honourable Rigathi Gachagua as his running mate making a scary ChaguaRuto ticket whichever way you look at it. It is scary, first in a political sense, because both the deputy president and Rigathi are quite abrasive in their politics. Scary, also, if you are the kind that has bought into the scaremongering that has gone on for quite too long in our politics by their detractors. Scary finally, because that ticket either removes completely or greatly diminishes the Uhuru factor in the central Kenya equation. Scary nonetheless. To me though, it is scary for a different reason. In the likely event, they win, and in the course of their administration Ruto elects to behave towards Rigathi the same way Uhuru has acted towards him, then we will be delayed the same way the last term of Uhuru has delayed us. Thankfully he has committed to not going that way.
Methinks in choosing Rigathi Gachagua, Dr Ruto killed two birds by one stone. First, he rendered Uhuru Kenyatta a lame duck. The Kikuyu nation was silently craving for a leader that would represent their interests by being present in person at the national leadership table. Uhuru was never willing to relinquish that position and had devised a way to become a puppeteer of the next government. The Kikuyu nation is angry with him "for destroying their businesses" and in their minds, it is a hands-on present leader they want. Not a puppeteer serving self-interests or those of a few from the obscurity of the background. The deputy president has inadvertently provided them with that.
Secondly, he forced Raila Odinga into accepting to drop Kalonzo Musyoka, for Martha Karua. I say accept because he did not make that choice. Uhuru and his benefactors did. Period. Towards, winning an election, the first strategy should always be to try and retain the traditional support base. Any decision that can affect that negatively should not be entertained. The loss of Kalonzo Musyoka can easily translate to the loss of Raila Odinga if steps are not taken to convince him to take less than he expected. With William Ruto making visible inroads in Raila's traditional strongholds, the last thing he needed was to disrupt another otherwise stable support base. Our Kenyan politics is highly tribal and anyone who thinks Raila won't lose much by losing Kalonzo is deluded. Kalonzo Musyoka has been such an important cog on the Raila side that his indecisiveness never mattered despite being known.
The MarthaRao ticket is completely understandable, but methinks it failed to take into account the damage the loss of Kalonzo would do. I do not see how running mate Martha Karua will deliver to Raila what president Uhuru Kenyatta has failed to. Moreover, whatever she may deliver can not be compared to what he would likely lose by dropping Kalonzo. The events in Kirinyaga and Tharaka where Martha took the campaign to are testament that the mountain is not any easier to climb for Raila with Martha Karua on her side. Furthermore, Uhuru appears to have opted to stay away from Raila's campaigns in an attempt (futile) to water down the project tag hanging ominously down MarthaRao's political neck. The Uhuru factor argument is under question.
Now, with the central vote so important, what then, is the kind of leader do they look for? Who between Martha Karua and Rigathi Gachagua ticks the important box of the leader they look for? How do the two possible deputy presidents compare?
Martha, if humiliated and fought will likely resign. Rigathi will probably stick around and fight to the end. Who would a GEMA person choose?
Given a choice between what Central people want and what she wants, Martha will likely choose what she thinks is right -what she wants -case in point 2013 and 2017. On the other hand, Rigathi will likely choose what "HIS PEOPLE" want -case in point, he dropped his friend, Uhuru, for them. Who would GEMA choose?
Rigathi is thus, a more acceptable choice for the central people for this reason. He is the stronger and the more resilient of the two leaders. Remember, the GEMA seem to favour Ruto who stoop up against Uhuru Kenyatta's assault in government. Gachagua is more likely to stand up to an Uhuru-like Ruto if he is under attack than Martha is in an altercation with an Uhuru-like Raila.
The choice of running mate was Raila's last chance at having a competing chance against Ruto but he has gotten that wrong. That same choice was Uhuru's last chance at redeeming himself before the GEMA people but it appears it is either too late, and, or he has got it wrong too.
If I am wrong, August election day will correct me. Here's to a peaceful election
